Last month, The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its official weather predictions for the 2024-25 winter season. If the 231-year-old source is to be believed, Colorado is in store for a less-than-frigid but still snow-heavy winter. But should you believe it?
What Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Anyways?
This annual periodical predicts things like weather forecasts, planting charts, and tide tables for the upcoming year based mostly on historical context and astronomical data. Almanacs like this have been around for centuries and were created to help guide farmers at a time when the success of a harvest could mean life or death.
First published in 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has outlasted and outsold virtually all of its competitors, proudly claiming an average 80% accuracy rate.
Is It Still Trustworthy?
More than two centuries ago, the almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas, used a forecasting technique based on a 17th century theory from Galileo that relied largely on sunspot data. While sunspots are still configured into today’s methodology, The Old Farmer’s Almanac also utilizes much of the same modern gadgetry used by current-day meteorologists.
With today’s high-tech satellites, weather balloons, and radars, it’s not difficult to obtain a fairly accurate weather forecast five days out. So with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at our fingertips, how is The Old Farmer’s Almanac not only surviving the digital age, but still thriving?
Likely, it’s a mix of usefulness and nostalgia — a lot like looking to a groundhog for a prediction about the end of winter, as Adrienne LaFrance wrote in The Atlantic. It’s a time-honored tradition “occupying that space somewhere between remembering and predicting,” only now it also offers free online gardening courses, seasonal recipes, and a search bar.
Fun Facts:
- In 1942, a German spy was apprehended with a copy of The Old Farmer’s Almanac in his pocket. The Germans had apparently been attempting to use its US weather forecasts to their advantage.
- The first edition was published in 1792 during George Washington’s first term as US president.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac didn’t get its first female editor until 2000 when Janice Stillman came on as editor No. 13. She is responsible for bringing the almanac online.
